By Anmol Choubey
(Reuters) – Analysts in a quarterly Reuters poll have forecast an average annual gold price above $3,000 for the first time, with global trade friction and a swing away from the U.S. dollar powering demand.
The poll of 29 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,065 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $2,756 predicted in a poll three months ago. The estimated price for 2026 rose to $3,000 from $2,700.
Spot gold prices have risen by a quarter so far in 2025, almost equalling the 27% increase recorded for the whole of 2024. Bullion, often seen as a store of value during uncertain times, has averaged $2,952 so far this year, according to LSEG data.
“Gold looks set for what can only be described as another epic year,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. “Like in the early 2000s, gold is seeing buying on price strength which can have the effect of feeding upon itself.”
Bullion broke above the $3,000 mark for the first time in mid-March and topped $3,500 last week as the trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, boosted safe-haven demand, on top of persistent central bank buying.
Although the gold price has since eased to $3,273, analysts expect it to remain supported by the wild swings in U.S. tariff policies and what are likely to be protracted trade negotiations. [GOL/]
“Gold’s fortune will continue to depend on other markets’ misfortune,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Bullion will remain supported, according to Hansen, as long as the focus remains on de-dollarisation and the impact of U.S. tariffs on global growth and fiscal stability.
At the same time, analysts warned of a crowded trade, while the high prices are curbing jewellery sector demand.
“Price risks persist given the physical market is wavering and central bank flows – while positive – are slowing, while an unwinding of tariff risk and fading recession risk can stall gold’s safe-haven appeal,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.
Silver, meanwhile, has underperformed gold with a rise of 12% so far this year, as it doesn’t benefit from central bank buying while investment demand has been dampened by growth worries. Half of total demand for silver comes from the industrial sector.
The poll forecast an average 2025 silver price of $33.10 per ounce, unchanged from the previous survey. It has averaged $32 so far this year.
Analysts lifted their 2026 silver price forecast to $34.58 from $33.45, expecting a structural market deficit and the global clean energy transition to provide support.
“Industrial demand is currently a little hampered by oversupply of solar cells but this should work its way through. Strengthening demand from autos and AI will also help to keep the market in a deficit of supply vs fabrication demand, which will widen in 2026,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey, Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru and Polina Devitt in London; Editing by Veronica Brown, Kirsten Donovan)
Comments