(Reuters) -The U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center published an advisory Thursday on the emergence of La Nina conditions in September, which are likely to persist through December 2025 to February 2026, with a 55% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January to March 2026.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The La Nina weather phenomenon is a part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Nina typically results in cooler water temperatures and increases chances of floods and droughts. This can impact crop quality and planting decisions. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
KEY QUOTES
“Weak La Nina conditions are expected this Northern Hemisphere winter which will favor near to above normal rainfall in eastern Australia which can raise concerns for areas of flooding,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
“Dryness can become a concern in northern Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil during their summer which can stress crops in these areas. Wet weather in Indonesia, Malaysia and parts of Southeast Asia can be beneficial for crops in these areas,” Nicholls added.
“ENSO-neutral is also generally favorable for the India monsoon for soybeans, groundnuts, rice, and cotton. It is variable in other areas such as China, Southeast Asia, and Australia, and we are certainly seeing that this year as well,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.
“The outlook is a bit more favorable for South America, especially central and northern Brazil. This should result in increased corn/soybeans plantings and favorable conditions, at least early in the season.”
CONTEXT
Argentina is set to harvest a record corn crop in the 2025/26 season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said last month, forecasting production in the world’s third-largest exporter to total 58 million metric tons.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands later in the day, and could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
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