A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
On another day, tech-driven stock rallies to fresh record highs in Tokyo and Taipei would probably signal a bullish tone for regional equities, but not today.
Just after those markets edged up to those unprecedented heights, traders turned sellers, looking to lock in profits in what remains a very uncertain environment.
South Korean investors were sellers from the get-go, taking advantage of Monday’s 2.8% surge in the KOSPI index to an all-time peak.
Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq may have gained overnight, but futures point sharply lower, and pan-European STOXX 50 futures are also in the red.
With most U.S. economic data releases suspended by the government shutdown, and Federal Reserve officials presenting diverging views on the correct path for monetary policy, investors have had to put a lot of weight on private surveys.
And one from Monday did not inspire much confidence in the world’s biggest economy: Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are intended to stimulate.
The JOLTS job openings data, closely watched by the Fed, that the market should have gotten later on Tuesday almost certainly won’t be forthcoming. Instead, investors need to wait until Wednesday for the ADP payrolls report.
For now, traders seem content with paring back bets on a December rate cut, lifting the dollar to multi-month highs on the yen and euro.
Even the tech news that buoyed Wall Street on Monday reinforced ongoing concerns about how closed the loop is in terms of the companies fuelling all the artificial intelligence fervour. In this case, Amazon’s $38 billion cloud services deal with ChatGPT-creator OpenAI.
Trump is also muddying the waters with conflicting comments about Nvidia’s most advanced chips, saying they won’t be available outside the U.S. – and he didn’t just limit that to China.
South Korean politicians and business leaders must be scratching their heads after the U.S. president appeared to promise them access to said chips just last week.
It’s bad news for Nvidia too, with CEO Jensen Huang saying recently that access to the China market is essential to fund U.S.-based R&D.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
-ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks in Sofia, Bulgaria
-Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva, Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speak at Santander event in Madrid
(Editing by Jamie Freed)
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