By Fabian Cambero
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Trade between Latin America and the Caribbean will likely grow in 2025 despite broad U.S. tariffs across the region, which have had a weaker impact than initially expected, a report by UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revealed on Wednesday.
The ECLAC projected that the value of the region’s exports would rise by 5% this year, up from 4.5% in 2024, driven by a 4% increase in export volume and a 1% increase in prices, the report said.
Mexico, the region’s main exporter, is expected to see a 5% increase in shipments.
“The impact of these tariff increases on the dynamism of global trade has been less than initially expected, largely due to the acceleration of imports and the accumulation of inventories by U.S. companies during the first quarter and the strong momentum of trade between Asian economies,” the ECLAC said.
“However, the outlook for global trade in goods for 2026 is less promising,” the agency warned.
Regional service exports are expected to increase by 8% in 2025, one percentage point lower than last year.
In the first half of the year, total trade in goods and services between Latin America and the Caribbean rose at year-on-year rates of 4% for exports and 7% for imports.
On average, prices for the region’s main export commodities edged up 1.7% between January and August 2025, contrasting with a 2.1% drop in the same period of 2024.
The ECLAC noted that the upward revisions reflect strong global trade momentum in the first half of the year, driven by accelerated imports and inventory buildup ahead of new U.S. tariffs.
The region faces an average effective U.S. tariff of 10%, seven percentage points below the global average.
While regional exports currently face relatively lower tariffs, that could change depending on trade balances and non-economic factors, the report said, urging countries to diversify trade relations and deepen regional integration.
(Reporting by Fabian Cambero; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )
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