By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Dec 3 (Reuters) – Central Europe’s main currencies may be close to a ceiling after hitting fresh multi-month highs in the past month, a Reuters poll of economic analysts showed on Wednesday.
In the poll, the Hungarian forint – the region’s top performer in 2025 with an 8% gain since January – was expected to fall 2.3% from Tuesday’s closing levels to 390.00 to the euro in the next 12 months.
The forint reached a fresh 22-month peak on Wednesday at 380.35 to the euro, although analysts see the currency falling around 1% already by the end of 2025, back to the 385 area, according to the poll’s median 1-month forecast.
Some analysts see potential progress in talks to end the war in Ukraine, following Russia’s 2022 invasion, opening room for gains in the forint and other central European currencies.
But others see limited scope for the Hungarian currency itself as the economy stagnates and it faces fiscal challenges before a parliamentary election in the first half of 2026.
“We stick to our view that the Hungarian currency is overvalued given the weak economic performance,” analysts at bank Santander’s Polish unit said in the poll.
INTEREST RATES ON HOLD
The forint and the Czech crown have been central Europe’s biggest gainers this year, with the latter rising more than 4%, as their respective central banks enforce a hawkish pause on interest rates, putting easing policies started in 2023 on hold.
In the poll, the crown was seen as the region’s likely best-performing currency over the next 12 months, holding onto its gains to finish the period at 24.1 per the euro, around the 26-month high of 24.106 reached on Wednesday.
Besides strict monetary policy, the currencies have found support from U.S. dollar weakness and – in the Czech case – accelerating economic growth.
A better economy has also supported the Polish zloty during a series of interest rate cuts this year.
ZLOTY, LEU LAG
Overall, the zloty is up 1.1% year-to-date. The zloty touched a seven-month high of 4.218 per euro last month.
Analysts in the poll forecast a slight retreat back to 4.25 per euro in 12 months, which has been the centre of the currency’s range trading this year.
Romania’s leu, which the central bank keeps in a managed float, was forecast to fall 1.1% in the next 12 months, reaching 5.1442 to the euro, close to an all-time low of 5.152 hit in May when investors worried a presidential election might derail efforts to cut the EU’s biggest budget deficit.
Jakub Kratky from Generali Investments CEE said Romania’s central bank had sought to keep the leu strong amid inflation pressures from the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation.
“After the inflation shock abates, the central bank may be willing to let the leu depreciate a bit,” he said.
(Other stories from the Reuters December foreign exchange polls)
(Reporting by Jason Hovet, Polling by Renusri K and Mumal RathoreEditing by Peter Graff)
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