By Maria Martinez
Feb 5 (Reuters) – German industrial orders rose unexpectedly in December, posting their biggest increase in two years driven by volatile large-scale orders, but more reliable sub-indicators showed an underlying upswing could be in the making.
Orders climbed 7.8% in December, when compared with the previous month, on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, official data showed on Thursday. This was the biggest increase since December of 2023.
A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a fall of 2.2%.
Excluding large-scale contracts, which often follow unpredictable patterns, new orders were 0.9% higher in December compared with the previous month.
INDUSTRY HAS BOTTOMED OUT
It was the fourth consecutive increase in the figure excluding large orders, said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank.
“This gives hope that the downturn in industry has come to an end for the time being,” Solveen said.
After revision of the provisional data, new orders in November increased by 5.7% on October, instead of 5.6%.
The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 9.5% higher in the fourth quarter of 2025 than in the third quarter.
“Overall, these are strong data, which will add fuel to the narrative that the German economy is finally kicking into gear after a year-long hiatus, helped in part by fiscal stimulus,” said Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The jump in orders was driven by a 30.2% increase in orders for fabricated metal products and a 11.5% rise in orders of machinery and equipment.
Foreign orders were up 5.6% in December on the month, with orders from the euro zone decreasing by 0.6% and orders from outside the euro zone rising by 9.7%.
Domestic orders were up 10.7% on the month.
(Additional reporting by Tristan VeyetEditing by Ludwig Burger, William Maclean)
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