By Roushni Nair
(Reuters) -Bearish bets on most Asian currencies eased as a softer U.S. dollar and signs of easing geopolitical tensions lifted sentiment, with investors turning more optimistic on the peso and ringgit, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Bullish positions on the Philippine peso rose to their highest since November 2024, while optimism on Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened further, extending gains since mid-April.
The ringgit has benefited from a weaker dollar and expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy, which typically support commodity-linked and supply-chain currencies in the region.
Long positions on China’s yuan climbed to their highest since mid-September, supported by optimism ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan later in the day- their first in-person talks since 2019.
Investors view the dialogue as a potential turning point in trade relations and a positive sign for Asia’s export outlook.
“We remain positive on the won, ringgit and yuan, but cautious on the Taiwan dollar, which may underperform regional peers,” said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC.
China’s recent shift toward a guided yuan appreciation appears deliberate and likely to continue, he added.
Bearish bets on South Korea’s won were trimmed slightly amid optimism over trade ties with the United States.Most poll responses were submitted before confirmation of the new deal, which includes tariff cuts and major investment pledges, with the outcome expected to bolster confidence in export stability and currency support.
“U.S. tariffs on Korean autos and parts will be reduced to 15% from 25%, putting Korean automakers on equal footing with their Japanese and European auto rivals,” Wong said.
Analysts turned slightly bullish on the Singapore dollar, while bearish bets on the Taiwan dollar edged higher, with analysts citing potential accounting changes and lingering geopolitical risks.
Positions against Indonesia’s rupiah were trimmed after Bank Indonesia unexpectedly held rates to defend the currency, restoring some confidence following weeks of volatility tied to fiscal and political uncertainty.
Short bets on India’s rupee eased sharply from mid-October but remained in place overall, while wagers against Thailand’s baht were slightly reduced yet have persisted since mid-April.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, as expected, but adopted a cautious tone as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown clouds the outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers may proceed carefully if key economic data remain unavailable.
Most poll responses were collected before the decision.
The U.S. dollar index has risen in only two of the past 10 months, losing 9.6% so far this year. The weakness, driven by dovish Fed signals, has buoyed most Southeast Asian currencies.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
30-Oct-25 -0.80 1.52 -0.17 1.11 0.20 0.55 -0.35 1.14 -0.03
16-Oct-25 -0.47 1.53 0.14 1.29 0.11 1.18 -0.27 0.62 -0.16
02-Oct-25 -0.67 0.80 -0.38 1.47 -0.32 1.53 -0.56 0.44 -0.76
18-Sep-25 -1.05 -0.20 -0.64 0.85 -0.44 1.50 -0.65 -0.22 -1.16
04-Sep-25 -0.77 0.10 -0.71 0.53 0.29 1.42 -0.63 -0.02 -0.46
21-Aug-25 0.06 0.35 -0.73 -0.08 -0.35 0.94 -0.40 0.22 -0.31
7-Aug-25 -0.09 0.35 -0.87 0.35 -0.50 1.33 -0.58 0.35 -0.40
24-Jul-25 -0.57 -0.10 -1.09 -0.05 -1.06 0.51 -0.57 0.21 -0.14
10-Jul-25 -0.54 -0.63 -1.30 -0.38 -1.65 0.36 -0.48 -0.06 -0.11
26-Jun-25 -0.74 -1.06 -1.22 -0.20 -1.48 0.89 -0.76 0.21 -0.33
(Reporting by Roushni Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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