SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea’s exports likely fell slightly in October amid higher U.S. tariffs of 25% imposed on goods made in Korea, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are forecast to have dipped 0.2% from a year earlier, after rising 12.6% in September, according to a median estimate from a survey of 15 economists.
That would be the first decline after fourth consecutive months of year-on-year increases through September.
The 25% tariffs came into effect on August 7, but Seoul and Washington on Wednesday agreed to bring them back down to 15%, according to South Korea’s chief policy adviser Kim Yong-beom.
“Based on working-day adjusted exports, semiconductors and vessel exports exhibited positive growth, while others are still staying in negative territory,” said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities.
“A recovery in non-semiconductor sectors seems delayed into the first quarter of next year as trade uncertainties re-emerge and capex outlook subdued.”
The same poll showed October imports probably declined 1.8% from a year earlier, compared with an 8.2% increase in September.
Headline inflation in October is seen at 2.10% from a year earlier, the same as September, while industrial output for September was seen expanding a mere 0.1% from a month earlier, according to the poll.
Trade data will be released on November 1 and inflation on November 4.
(Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Jihoon Lee, Youn Ah Moon in Seoul, Devayani Sathyan in BENGALURU)
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