The College Football Playoff committee had a few surprises in store when it released its first rankings and projected field of 12 teams of the season Tuesday night.
Much was as expected, with Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia making up the top five. On the less anticipated side of things, Utah checked in at No. 13 — four spots higher than its place in this week’s AP Top 25 poll — and no team outside the Power 4 conferences was given a spot.
With four weeks of regular season left plus conference championship weekend, there’s still plenty of time for things to be flipped on their head. Last year, nine of the 12 teams in the first projected bracket made it into the CFP while eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State wasn’t even in the top 25.
Here’s a look at the top 15 teams in the first rankings, their path here and the rest of the way, along with an assessment of where they were placed.
1. Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten)
How they got here: New QB Julian Sayin has been a sensation, and their defense is allowing 6.9 points per game.
Grading the ranking: A
Ohio State doesn’t have the best resume, but it’s hard to argue with keeping the defending champs No. 1 until they lose.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Rival (and recent demon) Michigan is the only real test left on the regular-season schedule. Then there’s the Big Ten championship game — almost certainly against Indiana and potentially to determine a top-four seed.
2. Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
How they got here: The Hoosiers have shown last year was no fluke with the best average margin of victory (35.7 points) in the country.
Grading the ranking: A
Indiana probably has the single-best win (at No. 9 Oregon) and has a strong case for No. 1.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Indiana’s last three opponents are a combined 0-16 in Big Ten play. The likely Big Ten title game vs. Ohio State looms as a chance for Indiana to claim No. 1.
3. Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0 SEC)
How they got here: Texas A&M’s ferocious defense leads the nation in sacks per game (4.0) while QB Marcel Reed has entered the Heisman conversation.
Grading the ranking: A-
Wins at Notre Dame and LSU could make a case for the Aggies being ranked even higher.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Texas A&M has two ranked road games left, this weekend at No. 22 Missouri and Thanksgiving weekend at No. 11 Texas.
4. Alabama (7-1, 5-0 SEC)
How they got here: Since losing its opener, Alabama has been on a roll, looking positively Nick Saban-esque with four consecutive ranked wins.
Grading the ranking: B
The loss to Florida State hasn’t aged well. Should Alabama be the highest-ranked one-loss team?
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Only one ranked opponent left (No. 12 Oklahoma), but games against LSU and Auburn always have a chance of getting crazy.
5. Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC)
How they got here: The Bulldogs have been hard to kill, trailing or tied at halftime in five of their last six games before winning four of them.
Grading the ranking: A
Georgia’s head-to-head loss to Alabama understandably puts it one spot behind the Tide.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: The Bulldogs still have Texas and upstart rival No. 17 Georgia Tech, which was unbeaten until Saturday, on the schedule.
6. Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 SEC)
How they got here: D2 transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss has stepped up, anchoring wins over LSU and at Oklahoma.
Grading the ranking: B+
The Rebels’ lone loss at Georgia is defensible, but they’ve also had some unexpectedly close wins.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: With only The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State left, Ole Miss has a very possible path to 11-1 and its first playoff berth.
7. BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12)
How they got here: With three one-score wins in the last five games, the Cougars have been great in the clutch with freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.
Grading the ranking: C-
BYU may have started the season unranked, but keeping it below three one-loss teams is a bit harsh.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: BYU has among the toughest paths left with a pair of ranked opponents on the road, starting with No. 8 Texas Tech this week.
8. Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12)
How they got here: Spending a reported $28 million on their roster, the Red Raiders have looked the part. They’d probably be top-five were it not for the slip-up at Arizona State.
Grading the ranking: A
The Big 12 of it all hurts Texas Tech’s standing, but at least it is above all two-loss teams.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: The aforementioned BYU game this weekend is followed by games against two teams that are a combined 2-9 in Big 12 play.
9. Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten)
How they got here: Oregon lost at home for the first time since 2022, but has otherwise taken care of business, which is the norm under coach Dan Lanning.
Grading the ranking: A+
Oregon’s resume to date is not particularly good, now that what was thought to be a signature win vs. Penn State is decidedly not one. The Ducks haven’t beaten a single ranked team and the one they played — Indiana — they lost to at home by 10 points. Good on the committee for being harsher than the AP voters.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: If the Ducks make the playoff, they’ll have earned it, considering three of their final four opponents (No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC and No. 23 Washington) are in the CFP top 25.
10. Notre Dame (6-2)
How they got here: Since starting 0-2 vs. Miami and Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish have taken care of business to climb back into contention.
Grading the ranking: C-
Notre Dame has looked much better of late, but has beaten just one ranked team and three teams above .500. Should it be the highest two-loss team?
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Coming off its first loss, 7-1 Navy awaits this weekend while Pittsburgh, which has won five straight, is after that.
11. Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC)
How they got here: The preseason No. 1 team fell out of the rankings in October, but appears to be rounding into form with four straight wins and is coming off a ranked win over Vanderbilt.
Grading the ranking: B
Texas gets the benefit of the doubt with how good it has looked lately and the fact that its Ohio State loss has aged very well.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: No team in playoff contention has a harder path to a berth. Two of the Longhorns’ final three games (at Georgia and vs. Texas A&M) are against top-five teams.
12. Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 SEC)
How they got here: QB John Mateer hasn’t looked the same since coming back from thumb surgery, but their top-tier defense can keep them in any game.
Grading the ranking: B+
Reasonable range for a team that has a few big wins but also multiple losses.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: The Sooners probably need to win out to make it. That won’t be easy with a trip to Alabama Nov. 15 followed by Missouri at home.
13. Utah (7-2, 4-2 Big 12)
How they got here: Utah has the third-best rushing offense in the country (267.1 yards per game) with a huge win (45-14 over then-No. 17 Cincinnati) and a humbling loss (34-10 at home to No. 8 Texas Tech) on its resume.
Grading the ranking: C+
This one is certainly the biggest surprise as the only team outside the AP’s top 15 to make the CFP top 15, and doing so comfortably. The Utes’ good is quite good, but they’ve proven to be inconsistent. Them being above Virginia and Louisville does not speak kindly about how the ACC is being viewed by the committee.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Utah’s last three games are against three teams that are all .500 in Big 12 play: Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas.
14. Virginia (8-1, 5-0 ACC)
How they got here: No team has been more clutch than Virginia, which has won seven straight, three of those in overtime and another by two points on a late safety.
Grading the ranking: B
A case can be made that the Cavaliers should be above the two-loss teams, but given how close many of the games have been, it’s understandable why they aren’t.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: Duke on Nov. 15 is the toughest test left, but the Cavaliers have beaten rival Virginia Tech just once in the last 20 matchups.
15. Louisville (7-1, 4-1 ACC)
How they got here: Louisville has lived up to its hype as an ACC dark horse, making a statement with a win at then-No. 2 Miami.
Grading the ranking: C+
Considering Louisville has a better win and one fewer loss, one could make a strong case that the Cardinals should be above Texas.
Remaining roadblocks to the playoff: No ranked opponents lie ahead on the rest of Louisville’s schedule. But Clemson is talented and a trip to SMU (Nov. 22) just tripped up Miami.
–Curt Weiler, Field Level Media
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