(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate on hold in December, traders bet on Thursday, after government data showed the labor market remained sluggish in September but was not deteriorating in a way that would bolster arguments for a third straight U.S. rate cut.
The unemployment rate in September ticked up to 4.4%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a long-awaited report – the worst showing in more than four years. While employers added more than twice as many jobs as expected that month, revisions to prior data showed they shed them in August.
Since the U.S. central bank cut rates in October, many Fed officials have signaled wariness about cutting further this year with inflation still above the 2% target. Without stronger evidence the labor market is in need of urgent support, these more cautious members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee may win the day next month, some analysts said.
“In the face of so much FOMC hawkishness and without any further jobs reports ahead of the December FOMC meeting, today’s jobs release is unlikely to tip the balance to a December cut,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The September jobs report, which had been delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, is the last comprehensive official data on the employment situation that Fed officials will receive before their December 9-10 policy meeting.
Short-term interest-rate futures reflected about a 67% chance that the Fed will not cut the policy rate in December, versus about 80% before the release of the data.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Susan Fenton and Paul Simao)
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