By Gabriel Burin
Dec 9 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 12-month inflation is forecast to have run in November at its lowest rate in more than one year, a Reuters poll showed, even as core measures remained high.
The headline reading should also have fallen back to the upper limit of the central bank’s target range after a slow cooling from April, when it had reached the fastest pace since February 2023.
Consumer price trends were moderated this year by the bank’s orthodox policy stance and the appreciation of the local currency but energy and service costs have stayed under pressure.
Inflation likely slowed to 4.49% in the 12-month period through November from 4.68% in October, according to the median estimate of 20 analysts polled on December 3-8.
This would be the lowest rate since 4.42% in September 2024, standing just under the upper bound of the official target range of 3% with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points on either side.
On the month, inflation is set to have accelerated to 0.20% in November from 0.09% in October. Data are due for release on Wednesday.
Barclays analysts attributed the monthly pickup to rising prices of electricity and, separately, more expensive hotel and travel costs for the COP-30 Climate Summit hosted last month in the Brazilian city of Belem.
Additionally, service inflation remained sticky as a result of strong employment conditions, with joblessness falling to a record low in October.
“We forecast core services inflation at 0.33% m/m, same as in October, decelerating to a still-high 6.03% y/y in annual terms from 6.31%,” Barclays added in a report.
Policymakers have focused on service prices as an issue that warrants extra vigilance, hoping an ongoing economic slowdown will help bring them under control.
At the same time, while inflation expectations have continued to decline recently, the process is very gradual, another factor prompting the central bank to keep its guard up.
Banco Central do Brasil will hold its key rate at 15% at the December 10 meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists, giving only a subtle nod to a possible cut next quarter.
Still, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may score a point if the yearly pace of consumer prices ends 2025 below the higher target limit of 4.50%, as anticipated in a weekly poll of economists by the central bank.
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel BurinEditing by Frances Kerry)
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