WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls rebounded less than expected in December, the ADP’s national employment report showed on Wednesday.
Private employment increased by 41,000 jobs last month after a revised decrease of 29,000 in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would rise by 47,000 jobs after a previously reported decline of 32,000 in November.
The services sector accounted for the rebound, adding 44,000 positions, though the professional and business services industry lost 29,000 jobs and employment in the information sector fell by 12,000. Payrolls in the goods-producing sector decreased by 3,000 jobs, with manufacturing shedding 5,000 positions. Construction payrolls increased by 1,000 jobs.
“The visual signal from today’s headline is that jobs were gained in December, but at a relatively slow pace,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
The ADP report is jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It was released ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for December on Friday.
The monthly estimate has historically diverged from the government’s private payrolls count in the employment report, which some economists said limited its value as a labor market gauge.
“ADP’s payroll estimate continues to attract more attention than warranted by its track record,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Its first estimate of private payrolls has been adrift from the first official estimate on average by 83,000 since its methodology was overhauled in August 2022.”
Though job growth has slowed significantly amid weak demand for labor, layoffs remain relatively low by historical standards. Economists say policy uncertainty mostly related to import tariffs has left businesses reluctant to increase their headcounts. Some employers also are integrating artificial intelligence in certain roles, diminishing the need for labor.
A Reuters survey of economists forecast that the BLS report would show private payrolls increased by 64,000 in December after rising by 69,000 in November. With further government job losses anticipated, overall nonfarm payrolls were estimated to have increased 60,000 last month after advancing by 64,000 in November.
But attention is likely to be on the unemployment rate, which is projected to have eased to 4.5% after jumping to a more than four-year high of 4.6% in November. The November unemployment rate was partially distorted by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which also prevented the collection of household data for October.
The unemployment rate for October was not published for the first time since the government started tracking the series in 1948.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci )
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