By David Morgan
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is fast becoming a double-edged campaign issue in November’s hotly contested midterm congressional elections because of mounting public unease over aggressive tactics by federal immigration officers.
After an ICE officer shot and killed 37-year-old Renee Good in Minneapolis on January 7, sparking protests, opinion polls showed most Americans disapprove of the conduct of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, including a Reuters/Ipsos survey that pointed to a Republican split over whether federal immigration agents should try harder to avoid hurting people.
Criticism about ICE’s use of force appears to have diminished the ability of Republican candidates to pivot away from economic pessimism among voters by stressing the party’s traditionally strong standing on crime and security. Democrats could benefit, despite the party’s historic weakness on border security issues, if voters decide Trump has moved beyond what they elected him to do, said Nathan Gonzales, editor of analysis firm Inside Elections.
REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS BOTH VULNERABLE
The polling data has raised Republican concerns that souring public views of ICE operations could cloud Trump’s success at securing the U.S.-Mexico border. Record numbers of migrants flowed into the U.S. under former President Joe Biden, a topic Republicans view as a key campaign asset.
But with some Democratic candidates calling for ICE’s abolition, Democratic groups are concerned that voters worried about immigration and security could turn against them come November.
Republicans control both the Senate and the House of Representatives but face voter frustration over high prices and the economy in an election cycle that often punishes the ruling party as voters cast ballots for all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.
“This is kind of a fluid situation that we’re in right now that reminds me a bit of where we were after George Floyd, where public opinion moved pretty dramatically,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report.
The 2020 police killing of Floyd in Minneapolis spurred nationwide anger that brought about reforms in many U.S. states but also proved to be a political liability for both Republicans and Democrats.
Members of the public have expressed outrage over immigration enforcement tactics such as ICE agents wearing masks, zip-tying children and arresting and injuring or killing U.S. citizens. Over the weekend in Minneapolis, a naturalized U.S. citizen said immigration agents with guns drawn broke down his door and dragged him into the snow wearing shorts and Croc shoes. ChongLy Thao, 56, who goes by the name Scott, said he was returned home later without explanation or apology.
The Department of Homeland Security has said ICE officers, whom it oversees, have also faced violence.
DEMOCRATS COULD RETAKE HOUSE: ANALYSTS
Analysts say Democrats are in a strong position to gain control of the House and could cut into the 53-47-seat Republican Senate majority, if not seize the chamber outright. Losing either chamber would hinder Trump’s ability to enact his agenda and also would enable congressional investigations into administration policies and actions.
“Is (ICE) an issue that people care enough to vote on? I don’t know,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters last week.
The Trump administration is poised to ramp up immigration enforcement this year with funds Congress gave ICE to hire thousands of agents, detain more than 100,000 migrants at any given time and expand surveillance to track down possible immigration offenders. The push is expected to include more enforcement against employers, a move that could pressure businesses in sectors known to hire workers who are in the U.S. illegally.
In the coming months, ICE’s aggressive tactics could undermine Republican support among Latino voters and influence toss-up Senate races in Democratic-leaning states such as Maine and Michigan, Walter said.
REPUBLICAN SENATOR CRITICIZES ICE TACTICS
Senator Susan Collins of Maine, the most vulnerable of this year’s Republican incumbents, criticized what she considered “excessive” ICE tactics, including wearing masks and targeting immigrants without criminal records, which she said have been ordered by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
“It’s not the ICE officers’ fault,” Collins told Reuters. “Some of the tactics that the secretary has had ICE use in cities are not where the focus should be.”
Some Senate Democrats hope to use government funding legislation to impose new curbs on ICE’s actions. But Collins, who oversees funding issues as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she instead favored oversight hearings with Noem.
In response, DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said, “President Trump and Secretary Noem are delivering on the American people’s mandate to deport illegal aliens.”
McLaughlin’s statement to Reuters cited opinion polls released months before Good’s shooting that showed most Americans favoring deportation of people in the country illegally, though one New York Times survey also said most voters thought Trump had gone too far on immigration enforcement.
The statement asserted that 70% of those arrested by ICE have been charged with or convicted of crimes, a claim that has been disputed by independent researchers, advocacy groups and journalists.
Democrats could find themselves debating whether to reform ICE or abolish the agency altogether, a question some fear could backfire on the party.
“The task ahead is not to eliminate enforcement, but to reclaim it from those who are abusing it for political gain,” the Democratic centrist think tank Third Way warned in a public memo.
(Reporting by David Morgan; additional reporting by Ted Hesson;Editing by Rod Nickel)
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