By Gayatri Suroyo and Fransiska Nangoy
JAKARTA, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Indonesia in January reported its quickest pace of inflation in nearly three years, its statistics bureau said on Monday, as it also released surprisingly strong export and import growth in December.
The inflation rate accelerated to 3.55% in January from 2.92% a month prior, below the 3.78% that was expected by analysts polled by Reuters.
The January reading was slightly above the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5% and marked the fastest pace since May 2023, LSEG Refinitiv data showed.
Inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy has remained within or under Bank Indonesia’s preferred range since mid-2023, allowing the central bank to embark on a rate-cutting cycle amounting to 150 basis points between September 2024 and September 2025.
A senior official at Statistics Indonesia, Ateng Hartono, said the relatively high reading in January was due to a low base effect because the government gave electricity tariff discounts to some customers in the early months of 2025 to help economic growth.
“In March or April, I’m sure inflation rate will normalise as long as there is no other government policy affecting the rate,” he said.
The annual core inflation rate, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, picked up to 2.45% in January from 2.38% in December. The Reuters poll had expected 2.37%.
STRONG TRADE
In December, exports and imports grew, while analysts expected them to fall.
Exports were up 11.64% from a year earlier to $26.35 billion – the poll expected a decline of 2.40% – thanks to larger shipments of palm oil, nickel, semiconductors and other electric components.
Imports rose 10.81% from a year earlier to $23.83 billion; analysts expected a drop of 0.7%.
The resource-rich country recorded a $2.52 billion trade surplus in December, slightly higher than the poll’s $2.45 billion forecast.
Overall, Indonesia posted a trade surplus of $41.05 billion for 2025, up from $31.33 billion a year earlier.
Its trade surplus with the U.S. grew to $18.11 billion in 2025 from $14.52 billion in 2024, despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Its surplus with the European Union, with whom Indonesia is about to sign a trade agreement, rose to $6.98 billion from $4.43 billion.
(Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Bernadette Christina, Fransiska Nangoy, Ananda Teresia; Editing by Martin Petty and Thomas Derpinghaus)
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