By Howard Schneider
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) -The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy overall “may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday, noting that policymakers will take a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to any further interest rate cuts as they balance job market weakness with the fact that inflation remains well above their 2% target.
“Based on the data that we do have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago,” at which the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at a National Association for Business Economics conference.
“Data available prior to the shutdown, however, show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected,” he said in reference to the U.S. government shutdown that has delayed release of jobs and other data.
“There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals,” Powell said, noting the nearly even divide seen in recent policymaker projections among those who see rate cuts at the policy meeting later this month and at the one in December, and those who see one or fewer cuts by the end of the year.
Powell cautioned that those projections can evolve as new data arrive.
“I will stress again that these projections should be understood as representing a range of potential outcomes whose probabilities evolve as new information informs our meeting-by-meeting approach to policymaking,” Powell said. “We will set policy based on the evolution of the economic outlook and the balance of risks, rather than following a pre-determined path.”
Even with the September jobs report delayed, Powell, who devoted most of his remarks to a discussion of Fed balance-sheet policy, said he drew from a variety of public and private data sources for insight on the job market.
“While official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability and firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty continue their downward trajectories,” Powell said.
The elevated inflation, he said, was partly due to rising goods prices that “primarily reflect tariffs rather than broader inflationary pressures.”
The Fed will receive an update on consumer price inflation on October 24. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has been told to release its latest Consumer Price Index report despite the ongoing shutdown.
The Fed will hold its next policy meeting on October 28-29, with investors expecting it to reduce rates by another quarter of a percentage point.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
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