By Maximilian Heath
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Heavy soil moisture in Argentina’s agricultural fields following an unusually rainy winter is expected to offset the impact of lower rainfall in the coming months due to La Nina, agroclimate specialists said.
By the end of October, Argentina, a key global food exporter, had recorded four consecutive months of above-average rainfall, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange.
The fertile fields are now saturated in some areas, providing a favorable starting point for the warmer half of the year, which will be influenced by La Nina.
“Most models are already indicating the persistence of a La Nina event,” Leonardo De Benedictis, a meteorologist specializing in agriculture, told Reuters. La Nina is a climate pattern marked by unusually cold Pacific Ocean temperatures, which typically reduces rainfall in key Argentine farming regions.
However, the abundant precipitation over the last four months could act as a buffer.
“Northern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and southern Santa Fe are closer to excess (water) than deficit, which is a very positive situation and shouldn’t have such a negative impact,” said De Benedictis, referring to the country’s core agricultural provinces.
In Argentina, the effects of La Nina are expected to be felt as farmers plant corn and soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with harvests projected by the Rosario Grains Exchange at 47 million and a record 61 million tons, respectively.
SHORT AND WEAK LA NINA
De Benedictis said changes in the rainfall pattern, following a week of heavy rains, would begin to show next week, with longer intervals between storm fronts and higher temperatures.
Adding that the current La Nina phenomenon could be weak and short-lived.
“It is low intensity and limited in duration, with the most notable impact likely in the second half of November, December, and January,” he said.
German Heinzenknecht of the Applied Climatology Consulting firm forecasts that November rainfall could remain near the usual 100–120 mm, followed by a slightly drier period through early January.
“I think things will normalize in the second half of January and into February,” he added.
La Nina is always a concern for Argentine farmers, and two years ago it caused one of the worst droughts on record.
However, Heinzenknecht added that for now there’s little reason to be alarmed this time.
(Reporting by Maximilian Heath; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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