By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Asian shares mostly followed Wall Street futures into the red on Monday as chaotic trading in precious metals made for a nervous start to a week that is packed with corporate earnings, central bank meetings and major economic data.
Silver lost another 5% at one stage, as Friday’s 30% plunge squeezed leveraged positions in what had become a very crowded trade. Dealers also said pressure on the UBS SDIC silver futures fund in China added to the rout.
Oil prices fell around 3% as President Donald Trump said over the weekend Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, perhaps lessening the risk of a U.S. military strike on the country.
The jitters saw MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan sink 1.7%, while South Korea shed 2.2%. Chinese blue chips were flat, with falls in gold indexes.
Japan’s Nikkei was a rare gainer, adding 0.3% as opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party was likely to score a landslide victory in next week’s lower house election.
Such a victory would likely make it easier to push through aggressive stimulus policies, and ease political uncertainty. More debt-funded spending could pressure bonds and the yen, with Takaichi talking up the benefits of a weaker currency for exports.
It was also a busy week for earnings in Europe, with around 30% of Euro STOXX market capitalisation due to report. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 0.6%, while FTSE futures dipped 0.1%.
S&P 500 futures lost 0.6% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.9%, with about one quarter of the S&P 500 set to report this week. Growth in S&P 500 earnings per share is running at 11% on the previous year, when consensus had been for 7%.
The focus will be on tech majors Alphabet, Amazon and AMD, particularly costs and benefits of AI in the wake of Microsoft’s badly received results.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted consensus estimates for AI hyperscaler capex this year had climbed to $561 billion, up 38% on 2025 and compared to $540 billion expected at the start of earnings season.
DOLLAR STEADIES AS YEN SLIPS
In currencies, the dollar looked a little steadier as broad weakness in the yen saw it edge up 0.1% to 155.00. Yet, the euro still added 0.2% to $1.1872, regaining some of Friday’s 1% retreat.
The dollar rally had been initially triggered by Trump’s choice of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to become the next chair of the central bank.
Analysts assumed Warsh was less likely to press for all-out rapid rate cuts than some other possible choices, though he has sounded more dovish than current chair Jerome Powell.
“Trump is most unlikely to have nominated Warsh if he was not genuinely supportive of lower interest rates, and for which there is plenty of evidence Warsh believes that the economy can achieve higher rates of non-inflationary growth,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.
Which was why market pricing remained at two rate cuts for this year, with a move seen unlikely until June when, presumably, Warsh will be chair. Futures imply a 68% chance of a steady outcome at the April meeting and, oddly, 68% for an easing in June.
That outlook may change should the January payrolls report on Friday surprise significantly in either direction, assuming the government is open and it is actually released.
Also on the menu this week are policy meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and Bank of England.
The RBA is an outlier in that markets imply around a 75% chance it will raise interest rates by a quarter point to 3.85%, so reversing one of three cuts delivered last year, in an attempt to quell resurgent inflation.
In commodity markets, volatility was the main theme as gold fell 2.9% to $4,718 an ounce, having shed almost 10% on Friday. Silver was last down 1.5% at $83.37, with trade extremely choppy. [GOL/]
“We think this is a buying opportunity for both gold and silver as the market eventually resumes their preference for hard assets relative to the U.S. dollar,” said Vivek Dhar, a mining and commodities strategist at CBA.
“We still maintain our forecast for gold futures to reach $US6,000/oz in Q4 2026 on stronger structural safe-haven demand and a lower Fed Funds rate.”
Oil prices fell as investors waited anxiously to see whether the U.S. would strike Iran, or some sort of deal could be struck. [O/R]
Brent slid 3.2% to $67.03 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 3.5% to $62.91 per barrel.
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Stephen Coates)
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