By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The minutes of the U.S. central bank’s October 28-29 meeting could provide more insight on Wednesday into the depth of the divide that has emerged among policymakers navigating an official data blackout, conflicting signals from available information, and a leadership transition during the final months of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure in the top job.
The meeting last month produced dissents in favor of both looser and tighter monetary policy, a rarity for the U.S. central bank, and what Powell called “strongly differing views” in a press conference following the Fed’s 10-2 decision to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range.
With official data releases suspended ahead of the October meeting due to the U.S. government shutdown, officials were left to evaluate alternative information that may have added to an emerging sense of caution about further rate cuts.
“There’s a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle,” Powell told reporters last month.
Though the government economic data is starting to flow again, with the September employment report due to be released on Thursday, there is no full schedule yet for when the full slate of missing reports might be released, and no clarity on what will be available by the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting.
The details could matter.
The Fed’s debate revolves in part around policymakers’ different perceptions of the risks facing the economy, and new data on inflation and jobs – whether stronger or weaker than expected – could change the balance.
“There’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious,” in the absence of data, Powell said last month.
The minutes are due to be released at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT).
Fed officials’ public remarks since the meeting have put the differences of opinion on stark display, and raised the possibility that coming votes in favor of whatever action the central bank takes could be even tighter.
Investors currently put the probability of another rate cut next month at roughly 50%.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
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